Facts:
- Unemployment remained at 3.8%.
- 4th Quarter GDP was revised lower, to 2.2%, according to the second estimate.
- PMI posted another month of expansion, with the index upticking to 55.3%.
- The S&P 500 (C Fund) gained 1.95%
Assessment:
- 2.2% quarterly GDP is weak. Slightly concerning.
- Unemployment is steady at historic lows. That’s good.
- The S&P 500 quarterly performance is 13.65!!!
- PMI still continues it’s impressive streak, performing well above-average (50% is considered average) for the past 27 months.
Bottom Line:
We’re heading into Spring, where general economic momentum has an uptick, typically. Aside from low GDP (which is 4th quarter GDP, by the way. The first quarter GDP will not be announced for another month.), the fundamentals are looking good. My recommended portfolios have not changed.
And don’t think I don’t hear the nay-sayers. There is always media hype in the air, so be careful to tune it out. If you’ve done so, you would’ve been handsomely rewarded this year. No F fund. No I fund. Just C & G, and a little S for the adventure-seekers.
If you are on the brink of retirement, consult with me before you position your TSP too aggressively.
Check out the 3 page report below. DON’T JUST LOOK AT RATE OF RETURN. Always view the target return of each portfolio in context of its ranges of fluctuation.
Email me – stephen@stephenzelcer.com
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