Facts:
- The G Fund rate for February 2024 increased from 4% to 4.125%.
- The Fed Funds interest rate remained at 5.3%.
- This month’s unemployment rate remained at 3.7%.
- The 1st Estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 3.3%. Last quarter’s GDP was 4.9%.
- PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) expanded to 50.7 (any reading below 50 represents contraction). This is the first expansion in 3 months.
- The S&P 500 (C Fund) increased 1.68% in January 2024. Thus far in 2024, S&P 500 is up 5.26% YTD.
Assessment:
Possible lowering of interest rates:
We have an election year coming up, and lowering interest rates is a tactic that politicians can use to buy votes.
Also, there’s speculation that inflation may have reached containment, in which case the fed can ease up on the interest rates, but only slightly.
The lowering of interest rates bodes well for the F funds, as such I have introduced the F fund back into my recommended portfolios.
Bottom Line:
The prospect of lowering interest rates excites the economy and the stock market, and the F fund.
We still have looming real estate defaults, the problem that the government hiring represents almost 2/3 of all new jobs, global threats to trade, gloabal threats to war, and domestic political instibility. Let’s see if the market ignores those in 2024.
In general, I am confident in the power of companies to make profits, and the economy will thrive and the market will continue to rise so long as Governments don’t interfere.
See this month’s recommended portfolios. DON’T JUST LOOK AT RATE OF RETURN. Always view the target return of each portfolio in context of its ranges of fluctuation.
Anyone who has more than 5 years before drawing income from their TSP should consider taking a more aggressive posture going forward and use my aggressive portfolios below. If you are within 5 years of retirement, you should email me to get a more customized recommendation.
If you have any questions, feel free to contact me.
Email me here – stephen@stephenzelcer.com
