- Unemployment dropped at 3.6%.
- 1st Quarter GDP was 3.2%, according to the first estimate.
- PMI posted another month of expansion, with the index reading to 52.8%.
- The S&P 500 (C Fund) gained 4% during April.
- Unemployment has not been this low since 1969.
- 3.2% quarterly GDP is very good, easing my concerns from last two reports
- The S&P 500 performance YTD is roughly 15%!
- PMI still continues it’s impressive streak, performing above-average (50% is considered average) for the past 28 months.
The broad market indicators are looking fantastic except in two areas:
- Trade Wars! Ugh! Trade wars will make the market volatile over the short term. I would suggest anyone who will be deriving income from their portfolio over the remainder of this year to proceed with caution.
- The real estate market is doing good. Just good, not fantastic. Lending is a little slow and defaults are up slightly (as compared to last quarter, but not last year).
I need to see how these two spoilers play out. I will say that if trade agreements with China are kept, the market should soar.
My recommended portfolios have not changed. No F fund. No I fund. Just C & G, and a little S for the adventure-seekers. Download here
If you are on the brink of retirement, consult with me before you position your TSP too aggressively.
Check out the 3 page report below. DON’T JUST LOOK AT RATE OF RETURN. Always view the target return of each portfolio in context of its ranges of fluctuation.
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