financial planner Stephen Zelcer

TSP Planning Report – May 2019

Tsp planning report for federal employees

Facts:

  • Unemployment dropped at 3.6%.
  • 1st Quarter GDP was 3.2%, according to the first estimate.
  • PMI posted another month of expansion, with the index reading to 52.8%.
  • The S&P 500 (C Fund) gained 4% during April.

Assessment:

  • Unemployment has not been this low since 1969.
  • 3.2% quarterly GDP is very good, easing my concerns from last two reports
  • The S&P 500  performance YTD is roughly 15%!
  • PMI still continues it’s impressive streak, performing above-average (50% is considered average) for the past 28 months.

Bottom Line:

The broad market indicators are looking fantastic except in two areas:

  1. Trade Wars!  Ugh!  Trade wars will make the market volatile over the short term.  I would suggest anyone who will be deriving income from their portfolio over the remainder of this year to proceed with caution. 
  2. The real estate market is doing good.  Just good, not fantastic.  Lending is a little slow and defaults are up slightly (as compared to last quarter, but not last year).

I need to see how these two spoilers play out.  I will say that if trade agreements with China are kept, the market should soar.

My recommended portfolios have not changed. No F fund.  No I fund.  Just C & G, and a little S for the adventure-seekers. Download here

If you are on the brink of retirement, consult with me before you position your TSP too aggressively.

Check out the 3 page report below.   DON’T JUST LOOK AT RATE OF RETURN.  Always view the target return of each portfolio in context of its ranges of fluctuation.

Download this month’s portfolios – Download here

Email me stephen@stephenzelcer.com

TSP Planning report recommendations
TSP Planning report recommendations
TSP Planning report recommendations

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