TSP Planning Report November 2020

TSP Planning Report November 2020

Facts:

  • Unemployment continued to drop.  This month’s unemployment rate came in at 6.9%, compared to last month’s 7.9%.
  • PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) continued to expand. This month’s reading came in at 59.3, compared to last month’s 55.4.
  • The S&P 500 (C Fund) dropped 2.66% during the month of October.  The YTD return is 2.69%
  • The Fed Funds interest rate remains between 0% – 0.25%, and the Fed suggested that such rates will hold thru 2023.  
  • The first Q3 GDP estimate shows GDP exploding 33.1%.  This is on the heels of Q2 where GDP dropped -31.4%.
 
Assessment:
So, is Coronavirus over?  As I’ve said already for the past 5 months, Coronavirus is no longer impacting the economic outlook.  This, however, can be changed if governments impose new lockdowns.  Will there be new lockdowns in the USA?   On a state-by-state level, we won’t see much more than we have.  But, on a Federal level, well, that waits to be seen.  
 
Also, as I’ve pointed out in the past 2 months reports, we might see a short-term slump in Real Estate coming soon, either December or January.  
 
For these reasons, I am reluctant to say we are in the clear.  As such, my model portfolios are not assuming robust growth yet.  I am keeping the models of a late-economic cycle where growth is modest.  
 
The portfolios below carry the least risk to achieve their target returns.  DON’T JUST LOOK AT RATE OF RETURN. Always view the target return of each portfolio in context of its ranges of fluctuation.
 
If you have any questions, feel free to contact me.
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