financial planner Stephen Zelcer

POST-ELECTION DECEMBER TSP REPORT

December 12, 2016 2:43 pm Published by Stephen Zelcer

The election is over. Now what? Just stick to the plan, and keep making your progress.

Of course I have heard people preach with conviction that “the market is due for a correction.” Maybe, but there aren’t any indicators suggesting that. In fact, all of my indicators were hinting towards a stronger American economy. Instead of using hunches (or worse, the media) to make investment decisions, I just use the data, and make my recommendations based on the facts and the science. All this is done so you can keep on track to reach your TSP goals.

Facts:

  • The revised GDP growth for the 3rd Quarter 2016 is, once again, noteworthy.  GDP increased 3.2%.  This is compared to the 1.4% growth in the 2nd quarter.  This is the first time GDP has risen over 3% since the 3rd quarter of 2014.
  • The S&P 500 also had notable gains of 3.76%, which wiped away all of last month’s losses, and then some.
  • Unemployment also had notable improvement, decreasing by 0.3% to to 4.6%.  This is the first time in 2 yearsthe indicator has had consecutive months of improvement!
  • PMI remained in expansionary territory for the 3rd consecutive month. The indicator has remained over 50 in 9 of the past 10 months.

Assessment:

  • This is the first month in a while that all four indicators showed positive signs.   This is great, but it needs to be taken in context.
  • Some of the S&P 500 movement may be a reaction to the election.  Last month had a notable loss.  Gains will need to come with more consistency to strengthen the forecast.
  • Unemployment & PMI indicators are promising with their consecutive positive performances.
  • GDP may be the strongest indication of an overall improvement in the economy.  If this upward trend wraps up the year, we may be setting the table for a solid 2017.

Bottom Line:

Putting it all together, the indicators are on the cusp of a growth economy, but not there quite yet.  If next month continues the strong positive behavior, it would strongly suggest an early/mid- economy with growth, but, for now, we will hold as a mid-stage economy.

 

My recommended TSP portfolios for the month of December are published and available on the TSP Planning website.  These TSP portfolios carry the greatest return for the least amount of risk in this economic environment.

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