Facts:
- The initial estimate for 2018’s 2nd quarter’s GDP came in at a solid 4%, and the final estimate for 2018’s 1st quarter’s GDP was revised up to 2.2%.
- The S&P 500 posted a solid gain of 3.72%.
- Unemployment dropped to 3.9%.
- PMI, again, posted another stellar month of expansion, with the index reading 58.3%.
Assessment:
- 4% quarterly GDP hasn’t happened since 2014.
- The S&P 500 is showing strength for the past 3 months, with YTD yield of 6.45%
- Unemployment is very low, again.
- PMI continues it’s impressive streak, performing above-average (above the 50% mark) for the past 20 months.
Bottom Line:
Remember this month. It is not often the economic indicators are all positive to an extreme. In my humble opinion, if not for all the Hollywood drama that is occupying our politics and media, we would be outpacing 2017’s rockstar performance.
But unfortunately, media loves drama. And investors hate it. So we’ll need to wait and see.
All this economic data clearly suggests a growth stage for the economy. I’ve adjusted my portfolios to reflect that. DON’T JUST LOOK AT RATE OF RETURN. Always view the target return of each portfolio in context of its ranges of fluctuation. The TSP portfolios below carry the greatest return for the least amount of risk in this economic environment.
