TSP Planning Report December 2019

Facts:

Compared to the past 3 months, the economic data has not changed much.
PMI was contracted again, with the index reading to 48.1%.
3rd Quarter GDP was 2.1%, according to the 2nd estimate.
Unemployment remained at 3.5%.
The S&P 500 (C Fund) increased 3.63% during the month of November.

Assessment:

PMI has contracted for the 3rd consecutive month, although just moderately. (The prior 2 months readings were 48.3 and 47.9).
2.1% quarterly GDP is just okay – nothing to get excited about, but also not terrible.
Unemployment remains at a 50-year historic low.
The S&P 500 performance for the past 3 months is up 7.66% and YTD is up 27.61%.

Bottom Line:

None of the data suggests gloom and doom in the near term. If anything, it suggests a moderate growth. However, because of media influence, it will come with it’s typical short term volatility.

Also, the Fed has indicated that they will keep interests rates steady (or perhaps slightly lowered), which bodes well for the F fund.

No I fund – as usual.

I’m keeping an eye on things. Just make sure you keep an eye on these reports.

I would suggest anyone who will be deriving income from their portfolio over the remainder of this year to proceed with caution. If you are on the brink of retirement, consult with me before you position your TSP too aggressively. Email me stephen@stephenzelcer.com
Check out the 2 page report below. DON’T JUST LOOK AT RATE OF RETURN. Always view the target return of each portfolio in context of its ranges of fluctuation.

To download this month’s portfolios – Click Here