TSP Planning Report – September 2019

TSP Planning report portfolios

TSP Report September 2019

Facts:

  • PMI contracted, with the index reading to 49.1%.
  • 2nd Quarter GDP was 2%, according to the second estimate.
  • Unemployment remained at 3.7%.
  • The S&P 500 (C Fund) dropped 1.59% during the month of August.

Assessment:

  • This is the first time in 31 months that PMI has contracted.  It is minor contraction, but the contrast is stark and the hot streak has ended.  If this continues for 2 more months, I will raise the red flags higher.
  • 2% quarterly GDP is just nothing to get excited about, but also not terrible.
  • Unemployment remains steady at historically low levels, again.
  • The S&P 500  performance is volatile, but YTD is up 18.32%.

Bottom Line:

The economy is cooling, but that is not justification for panic selling.  I would encourage staying in the market, however with a slightly moderated posture.
You’ll see my posture is a bit more conservative. Just like last month – fewer portfolios and barely any G fund, but instead, the F fund. I believe this switch between G & F happened because interest rates have dropped so low, and because the stock yields are anticipated as being diminished, that the F fund is now needed to give a little boost. This is unusual, and I don’t expect it to last long.
No I fund – as usual (Thankfully).

I would suggest anyone who will be deriving income from their portfolio over the remainder of this year to proceed with caution.  If you are on the brink of retirement, consult with me before you position your TSP too aggressively. Email me stephen@stephenzelcer.com

Check out the 2 page report below.  DON’T JUST LOOK AT RATE OF RETURN.

Always view the target return of each portfolio in context of its ranges of fluctuation.
To download this month’s portfolios – Click Here

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