financial planner Stephen Zelcer

TSP Planning Report May 2018

Webinar for federal employees

Facts:

  • Unemployment dropped to 3.9%.  Unemployment hasn’t dropped below 4% in 18 years.
  • The S&P 500 posted a paultry gain, up 0.38%.
  • PMI, again, posted another month of expansion, with the index reading 57.3%.
  • The 1st estimate for 2018’s 1st quarter’s GDP was 2.7%.

Assessment:

  • The Unemployment report is pretty cool.  It’s been 18 years since employment levels have been so high.  I’m not going to jump at this info unless we see it holding somewhat consistent over next few months.
  • The S&P may be returning to stable footing.  The YTD return is only a slight negative, -0.40%
  • PMI continues it’s impressive streak, performing above-average (above the 50% mark) for the past 17 months.
  • The 2018 Q1 GDP numbers are healthy for a first estimate.  Historically, Q1 GDP is the lowest GDP producing quarter.

Bottom Line:

It looks like tariff talk is no longer consuming the media headlines and instead unemployment is all the hype.  This is a good thing for the market.  But remember, there’s hype and then there’s fundamentals.  The fundamentals are still solid.  Always be on guard against media hype.

Be sure to view all 3 pages of the embedded report below.  The TSP portfolios below carry the greatest return for the least amount of risk in this economic environment.  Remember, DON’T JUST LOOK AT RATE OF RETURN.  Always view the target return of each portfolio in context of its ranges of fluctuation.

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