TSP Planning Report November 2022
Facts:
- The G Fund rate for November 2022 increased to 4.25%. It was 2.75% in August.
- The Fed Funds interest rate increased to 3.83%. It was 2.5% in August. In June in was 1.65%, and 0.9% in May.
- This month’s unemployment rate increased back to 3.7% from 3.5%.
- PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) continued to expand (any reading above a score of 50 means expansion). This month’s reading came in at 50.2. While this shows some expansion, it is the lowest score since May 2020.
- The S&P 500 (C Fund) increased 8.1% in October, on the heels of -9.21% in September. As of this writing, the S&P 500 is down -17.5%
- A 1st estimate of Q3 GDP has come out, showing a growth of 2.6%. The 3rd estimate of Q2 GDP confirms a negative -.6% GDP. This is back-to-back quarters of negative GDP which means the American economy has entered a “recession.”
Assessment:
The economy is not showing signs of growth. Major employers are laying off massive amounts of employees.
It’s ugly out there, and it seems things are going to get worse before they get better. I do not feel good about the market for the next few months. However, it’s always hard to say when the fall and rise will happen – for example, the S&P 500 (C fund) grew 10%+ in the past two months.
You need to ask yourself – how soon do you need your investment money?
Bottom Line:
The market has dropped significantly. A rebound, when it comes, usually comes quickly. As such, it’s hard to advise to pull out of the market. My general advice is to give it time. Time is the ultimate risk mitigator.
If you are seeking 4% yields, you don’t need any stock, because as of today the G fund is yielding 4.25%.
However, for higher yields you will still need stock exposure. Keep investing, and go on with your business. In fact, you may want to introduce some more money into the C & S funds to capture the bounce-back. Your new TSP contributions should go 70% C fund, 30% S fund to catch a bounce-back. If your G fund is overfunded (if you don’t know what overfunded is, contact me asap), consider doing an inter-fund transfer from G into C & S to participate in the bounce-back.
See this month’s recommended portfolios. DON’T JUST LOOK AT RATE OF RETURN. Always view the target return of each portfolio in context of its ranges of fluctuation.
Anyone who has more than 5 years before drawing income from their TSP should consider taking a more aggressive posture going forward and use my aggressive portfolios below. If you are within 5 years of retirement, you should email me to get a more customized recommendation.
If you have any questions, feel free to contact me.
Email me here – stephen@stephenzelcer.com
